NFL Week 5 Line Moves, Betting Percentages, and Free Picks
For the first time in 15 years, there are no 4-0 or 0-4 ATS times. (Just the third time since 1990) With that, we move ahead to Week 5 with Lines Moves and have free picks and more.
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers – Miami -1 | Sun, Oct 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Carolina opened at -1.5 over Miami after they blitzed Atlanta for their first victory. After being run over by New England (42-13) and the Dolphins finding the win column for the first time in 2025, the Panthers went from faves to dogs of +1. Seemingly adding an insult, the Fins will be in Charlotte without Tyreek Hill. Update: No action the rest of the week on this matchup. Miami does seem like the right side, yet Carolina crushed Atlanta in their one home game. Don’t be surprised if the Panthers play well at home again, as teams like the Fins off in two straight division games, against an opponent off a non-conference game, are only 9-28 SU.
Bet Percentage: Previously Dolphins 63%, now 57%
Doug’s Pick – Carolina covers
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets – Dallas -2.5 | Sun, Oct 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Cowboys opened as a Pick for their trip to New Jersey, and after the Flyboys’ loss in Miami, the Boys went to -2.5. This, despite rather one-sided betting action on Gang Green. The Dallas defense is last in the NFL in yardage and next to last in points allowed. If the Jets don’t have their almost two turnovers a game, they could stay in this matchup. Update: The market was good with Dallas giving points and not budged. It’s all about the Jets’ mistakes and not generating one turnover this season. (-8 TO margin). However, that Dallas D is dreadful and teams allowing 27 or PPG, after giving up 30 points or more in three straight games, are 16-47 SU.
Bet Percentage: Previously Jets 75%, now Cowboys 54%
Doug’s Pick – Jets cover
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints – Total 42 | Sun, Oct 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The New York Giants and New Orleans rank #27 and #28 in points per game, partly because they are playing young quarterbacks who lack the experience and weaponry around them to succeed. Nevertheless, the total for this NFC clash has the total sinking like Russell Wilson’s chances of being a starting NFL quarterback again to 40.5 (from 43.5). Should one consider this? Road teams with a total between 35.5 and 42 points, allowing a completion percentage of 60% or higher, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in two straight games, are 29-5 UNDER. Update: We’ve seen a reversal, with the total back up to 42 points. Additionally, the Saints were moved from a Pick to -2, as bettors begin to wonder how much the G-Men will miss Nabors at receiver. (though the betting public loves Big Blue, as you can see below) Let’s take the UNDER and say New Orleans has more effective offensive weapons at home.
Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 64%, now 70% / Giants 80%
Doug’s Pick – Take UNDER and Saints cover
Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals – Detroit -10.5 | Sun, Oct 5 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
With Cincinnati’s last two performances, you have to question coach Zach Taylor. Yes, he’s seen his star QB, Joe Burrow, hurt too often, which curtails any Bengals’ success. But a lack of effort and focus from the rest of the Cincy squad has nothing to do with injuries. Conversely, Detroit might not always win, but nobody complains about the Lions’ effort. Little wonder Detroit escalated from -7.5 to -10.5 in Southern Ohio. Update: No changes in this non-conference clash, with the Lions still big road favorites. If there is any trepidation about Detroit, it’s backing a team off three straight covers with no bye mixed in, as betting this type of wager has been profitable for decades in play against mode. But how much heart do the Bengals have?
Bet Percentage: Previously Detroit 90%, now 90%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Lions cover
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills – Buffalo -9 | Sun, Oct 5 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Searched to find where Buffalo had more injuries against New Orleans than we heard about, trying to understand why the Bills would crumble from -10 to -7.5 vs. rival New England. The Buffalo defense has players out and others playing hurt. Since Tom Brady went to Tampa, the Patriots have remained pesky against the Bills in spite of the talent difference. Maybe there is something we missed or cannot find, but -7.5 seems low, with -10 is too high. Update: It felt too good to be true, and it was with Buffalo back to -9. We surveyed a large chunk of angles that are very favorable for the Bills to emerge victorious. Here is the rub: 80% of them have Buffalo winning on average by 7.5 to 8 points.
Bet Percentage: Previously Bills 93%, now 88%
Doug’s Pick – Patriots cover
NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (5-7 record): Cardinals, Lions and Colts
NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (7-5 Record): Raiders/Colts OVER, Cowboys/Jets OVER and Broncos/Eagles OVER
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