MLB Division Series Betting Preview and Free Picks
By the seedings, we had two upsets in the Wild Card round. However, in the Divisional Round, we have two favorites without home-field advantage and another that is close. What will this round bring? Let’s take a deep dive. (Odds from Betonline)
ALDS (4) New York Yankees (-148 series) vs. (1) Toronto Blue Jays (+128)
These teams were tied for first place in the AL East, but Toronto captured the tiebreaker by winning eight of the 13 skirmishes. The Blue Jays
are rather significant underdogs, considering they have the home-field advantage.
The Yankees finished the regular season with the most home runs in the majors, by a good margin, 30 more than the #2 Dodgers. Modern-day postseason baseball is often about who hits the most long balls and which pitching staffs keep the ball in the park.
New York only hit two homers against Boston to win that series and will need more production from the big bats. This seems possible because the Blue Jays staff permitted the sixth-most dingers, the worst of any of the playoff teams.
Nevertheless, the Yankees can go ice cold without notice, and Toronto pitchers did a better job during the regular season. The Jays were #13 in home runs, but the key to their offense is runners, leading the big leagues in on-base percentage. If Toronto can score multiple runs in innings, that puts pressure on New York, and they can win the series. Look for this to come down to homers, for and against, along with the bullpens. That’s advantage Yankees.
Free Pick: Yankees advance
ALDS (6) Detroit Tigers (+164) vs (2) Seattle Mariners (-188)
A tip of the hat to Detroit for overcoming itself and ultimately Cleveland, to reach the juncture. Credit manager A.J. Hinch for just having his team grinding away until something positive happened. Of course, the Tigers will need Tarik Skubal to win this series. Skubal probably will pitch Game 2 in Seattle. If the series goes five games, Skubal could come back on four days’ rest, and let’s be honest, he’s their best option in a big game.
Seattle had a scintillating September with an 11-game win streak and winning 18 of 19. The Mariners are a trendy choice to make the World Series because they have a quality starting staff that wasn’t always terrific, but is not lacking in ability. Seattle is also set up for a setup man and closer to win games.
The big difference in the M’s offense, it was #3 in balls over the fence and #9 in runs scored.
Because of the lack of postseason baseball for both organizations, if this series went the distance, it would not be a shocker. We see Seattle in the ALCS.
Free Pick: Mariners advance
NLDS (4) Chicago Cubs (+100) vs. (1) Milwaukee Brewers (-120)
Milwaukee was the best team in baseball going back to May. The Brewers beat you with pitching, defense, speed, and timely hitting.
Milwaukee was #3 in ERA in baseball and had the #6 bullpen. Chicago’s offense went from #2 at the All-Star and was #20 in runs scored for the balance of the season. The Cubs hardly pummeled the Padres in scoring six total runs. Yet, why is Milwaukee this short of a home favorite over their neighbors to the south?
As we mentioned, long balls matter in October. Milwaukee was #22 in that category, giving them the fewest of the postseason clubs. The Brewers were 6-7 vs. the Cubs and will have to find their game quickly off the break, because if you start sluggishly, a five-game series can go swiftly.
The Brewers might get closer Trevor Megill back, but he’s been out a long time. And starter Brandon Woodruff has been on the IL since Sept. 17.
Chicago’s free-swinging bunch has not made enough adjustments, which has changed the offense. The bullpen’s been in flux all season, and Cubs fans carry around Tums. It feels like the oddsmakers are telling us something. With that, a lean with Chicago.
Free Pick: Cubs advance
NLDS (3) Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) vs. (2) Philadelphia Phillies (+110)
Most would agree, the most likely World Series winner is who takes this anticipated series. The Dodgers appear primed to repeat, having the starting staff in order, and the offense is again clicking, especially with Mookie Betts back to form. The greatest concern for manager Dave Roberts is close games from the seventh inning on, having no idea who to call on from the bullpen.
The Philadelphia faithful contemplate if the Phillies can truly win a World Series without Zack Wheeler? Philly still has a collection of formidable starters, and the bullpen was better the last month of the season. The Phils can match runs with L.A., and like the Dodgers, have veteran players used to winning.
This is the heavyweight confrontation for this round. It feels like the bullpens, along with the stars, will decide it. The L.A. pensters do them in.
Free Pick: Phillies advance
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