Week 5 NFL Line Moves
For the first time in 15 years, there are no 4-0 or 0-4 ATS times. (Just the third time since 1990) With that, we move ahead to Week 5 with Lines Moves. See you here Friday for the free picks!
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers – Miami -1 | Sun, Oct 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
This line move is not a ringing endorsement for the Carolina Panthers. The Cats opened at -1.5 over Miami after they blitzed Atlanta for their first victory. After being run over by New England (42-13) and the Dolphins finding the win column for the first time in 2025, the Panthers went from faves to dogs of +1. Seemingly adding an insult, the Fins will be in Charlotte without Tyreek Hill. This feels very much like the lesser of two evils choice.
Bet Percentage: Dolphins 63%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets – Dallas -2.5 | Sun, Oct 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The line movement seems like it is a combination of Dallas possibly improving and the New Jets being who they always are. The Cowboys opened as a Pick for their trip to New Jersey, and after the Flyboys’ loss in Miami, the Boys went to -2.5. This, despite rather one-sided betting action on Gang Green. The Dallas defense is last in the NFL in yardage and next to last in points allowed. If the Jets don’t have their almost two turnovers a game, they could stay in this matchup.
Bet Percentage: Jets 75%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints – Total 40.5 | Sun, Oct 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The New York Giants and New Orleans rank #27 and #28 in points per game, partly because they are playing young quarterbacks who lack the experience and weaponry around them to succeed. In Jaxson Dart’s case, he only has 60 minutes of playing time at this level, which gives him a hard Pass. Nevertheless, the total for this NFC clash has the total sinking like Russell Wilson’s chances of being a starting NFL quarterback again to 40.5 (from 43.5). Should one consider this? Road teams with a total between 35.5 and 42 points, allowing a completion percentage of 60% or higher, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in two straight games, are 29-5 UNDER.
Bet Percentage: OVER 64%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals – Detroit -10.5 | Sun, Oct 5 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
On Monday, Cincinnati gave off the vibe that they were going through the motions at Denver. That was a bad sign when it was still September. At this point, you have to question coach Zach Taylor. Yes, he’s seen his star QB, Joe Burrow, hurt too often, which curtails any Bengals’ success. But a lack of effort and focus from the rest of the Cincy squad has nothing to do with injuries. Maybe his message isn’t getting through, and his sideline demeanor is that of someone willing to put up with players not wholly committed. Conversely, Detroit might not always win, but nobody complains about the Lions’ effort. Little wonder Detroit escalated from -7.5 to -10.5 in Southern Ohio.
Bet Percentage: Detroit 90%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills – Buffalo -7.5 | Sun, Oct 5 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Searched to find where Buffalo had more injuries against New Orleans than we heard about, trying to understand why the Bills would crumble from -10 to -7.5 vs. rival New England. The Buffalo defense has players out and others playing hurt. Since Tom Brady went to Tampa, the Patriots have remained pesky against the Bills in spite of the talent difference. Maybe there is something we missed or cannot find, but -7.5 seems low, with -10 is too high.
Bet Percentage: Bills 93%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
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