GamblersWORLD Week 4 NFL Odds, Updates and Free Picks

GamblersWORLD Week 4 NFL Odds, Updates and Free Picks

Weekly, Line Moves tell NFL bettors where the action is and where it might be headed. We’ve reached Friday and have updates and Free Picks.

Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Minnesota -2.5 | Sun, Sept 28 | 9:30 AM ET | NFLN

Minnesota was sent out at +1 against Pittsburgh because J.J. McCarthy was injured, and Carson Wentz hasn’t inspired confidence in some time. However, the latest – quarterback whisperer, Kevin O’Connell, as the Vikings coach, said all Wentz needs to do is be a “point guard”. It worked as the Vikings worked Cincinnati 48-10. The Vikes were flipped to -2.5 over Pittsburgh, trusting Wentz/O’Connell over Aaron Rodgers. UPDATE: The number on the Vikings is unchanged; there is more money on Minnesota compared to early in the week. With the total at 41, that is in Minnesota’s wheelhouse. (Vikes 6-0 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.)

Bet Percentage: Previously Even 50-50 split, now Vikings 60%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Vikings cover

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Total 43.5 | Sun, Sept 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

Jalen Hurts and Philly average 25.4 PPG, and Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are at 24 PPG, yet the total tumbled two points to 43.5. Each club has permitted at least 21 PPG; thus, this gets us closer to attempting to figure out why this line move occurred. Granted, the past five matchups find a 4-1 UNDER answer. It is true, Mike Evans is out for Tampa Bay, yet, since Mayfield arrived in West Florida, he’s found ways to win and score with whoever is playing. UPDATE: A slight buyback to 44 in this anticipated encounter. We’ll side with the public in this one, trusting both quarterbacks, while not completely sure of the stop troops. Besides, teams like the Buccaneers off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, against an opponent off a home win, are 74-36 OVER.

Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 69%, now 81%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions – Total 44 | Sun, Sept 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

A massive three-point drop in the total from 47 to 44 might be the most attractive aspect of this nonconference collusion for those placing wagers. Cleveland is driving the bus on this line movement because their defense is physical and aggressive, with the offense a lackluster #30 in scoring at 15.3 PPG. There is probably a feeling that the Lions will be flat-ish off a meaningful Monday night contest. UPDATE: There’s been zero movement on the total since early in the week. Have admit to being tempted to take a higher score after Myles Garrett said, “He (Lions OC) hasn’t seen a defensive front like ours,”. Yet, cannot ignore when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, and a team like Cleveland is off a win by three or less points, against an opponent after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored, the UNDER is 22-3.

Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 94%, now 66%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams – Total 49.5 | Sun, Sept 28 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX

Everyone is expecting offense, not defense in this anticipated battle, and shoved the total from 46.5 to 49.5. Daniel Jones has played like his former nickname – Danny Dimes – with precision passing and working the run game behind an excellent Colts O-Line. Indy is #3 in scoring at 34.3 PPG. The Rams aren’t shabby at 24.3 PPG. With the total this high, what the outcome depends on is the amount of pressure both clubs apply to the opposing QBs. UPDATE: Once again, no line movement, with the bet percentage holding steady. With L.A. 10-2 OVER against teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, we side with the public again.

Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 95%, now 87%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders – Pick | Sun, Sept 28 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS

Pete Carroll might have brought enthusiasm to his new team; unfortunately, to Raiders fans, it looks like the same old Silver and Black. This is brought home by the fact that Chicago, off its initial victory of the season, has gone from +2.5 to a Pick in Sin City. Here are three elements to determining the right side for this matchup. Who can successfully run the ball and stop the run? And which quarterback makes the fewest number of dumb throws? UPDATE: This line has jumped around this week, bouncing back and forth from a Pick to the Raiders -1. At the time we went to post, it was the latter. Look for Carroll’s crew to bounce back and eke out a win.

Bet Percentage: Previously Bears 83%, now 71%

Doug’s Pick – Raiders cover

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (4-5 record): Broncos, Bills and Chargers

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (6-3 Record): Bears/Raiders OVER, Bengals/Broncos OVER and Colts/Rams OVER