GamblersWORLD Week 4 College Football Line Moves

GamblersWORLD Week 4 College Football Line Moves

We move to the third Saturday in September for college football and cover the biggest line moves. Return on Friday for the Free Picks.

CFB – (309) North Texas at (310) Army +1.5
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 12:00 p.m. ET /CBSSN

North Texas wiped out Washington State last week 59-10, as a 6.5-point home favorite, which changed football bettors’ thought process. The Mean Green opened as 2.5-point underdogs at Army, but were flipped early in the week to -1.5 point road favorites. It is hard to know what to make of the Black Knights, losing to Tarleton State at home, followed by upsetting Kansas State on the road. Here is something to ponder. North Texas allowed Western Michigan to rush for 216 yards on the road in their three-point win. The Army is a more skilled rushing offense.

Bet Percentage: North Texas 95%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (311) SMU at (312) TCU Total 64
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ESPN2

We certainly cannot be shocked that the total was lifted from 61.5 to 64 for the Lone Star State rivalry encounter. TCU is averaging 45 PPG, and SMU is at 38.3 PPG. Three of the last four battles have easily gone OVER this total, plus five of the past seven. Both squads have high-powered veteran quarterbacks skilled in not only moving the chains but finding the endzone in Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson and SMU’s Kevin Jennings. The key to the contest is what kind of pressure the defenses apply to the opposing offenses.

Bet Percentage: 90% OVER

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (333) Kent State at (334) Florida State -46
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ACCN

With Florida State reminding backers of the Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher teams of the past to start 2025, the Seminoles were shoved from an already chalky 43.5 points to 46. This is the seventh time in the last decade, the less than Golden Flashes are catching 40+ digits, handily the most in the time period. Currently, the only surprising aspect is that the majority of the money is on Kent State. After seeing Oregon and Ohio State drop as big faves a week ago and go 0-1-1 ATS versus spreads that were reduced from opening numbers, is now the time to snag the Flashes?

Bet Percentage: Kent State 55%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (335) Toledo at (336) Western Michigan -14
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ESPN+

The upper tier of the MAC appears stronger this season, led by Toledo, which has a realistic shot at an 11-1 campaign. The Rockets’ first conference test is at Western Michigan, which has faced a pair of Big Ten teams (Michigan State and Illinois) and what seems to be a high-quality North Texas outfit. Toledo features a solid offense at #33 nationally, skilled in both the run and pass. The Chippewas have grown two points to +14 underdogs, in part because if they fall behind, they are #124 in passing yards. Nonetheless, Toledo is 5-16 ATS in away games after two or more consecutive straight-up wins.

Bet Percentage: Western Michigan 85%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (361) Michigan St. at (362) USC -17.5
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 8:00 p.m. ET /FOX

This is the Big Ten opener for both units, who have started 3-0. Michigan State has played at home three times and was forecasted to finish in the lower parts of the Big Ten. USC has disappointed under Lincoln Riley, but this Trojan team is reminiscent of his early years at Oklahoma, with a powerful offense and an average defense. The Men of Troy have been bumped from -15.5 to -17.5, as some wonder if the Spartans’ offense can keep pace despite having scored 40+ in their past two outings.

Bet Percentage: USC 96%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

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