GamblersWORLD Week 3 College Football Odds, Updates and Free Picks

Week 3 College Football Odds, Updates, and Free Picks

Here is our update on Line Moves from Tuesday, with our Free Picks that were a 5-2 a week ago.

CFB – (123) Clemson at (124) Georgia Tech +3.5
Saturday, Sept. 13 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ESPN

Read the previous article this week here.

Football bettors are not impressed with the Tigers and have clipped Clemson from -6 to -3.5 for their ACC opener at Georgia Tech. The Ramblin’ Wreck is in serious payback, having lost eight straight to Clemson (1-6-1 ATS). As you see by the bet percentage, sharp money has driven the early market. Update: The public still supports Clemson, but wise guy money continues to drive the Tigers downward, now at -3. At this point, unless you think Georgia Tech will win outright, the value is gone on the Yellow Jackets. Coach Dabo Swinney’s squad has the value now, and they are 10-2 ATS in away games after playing two straight non-conference contests.

Bet Percentage: Previously Clemson 81%, Now 73%

Doug’s Pick – Clemson covers

CFB – (131) Georgia at (132) Tennessee +3.5
Saturday, Sept. 13 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ABC

The Bulldogs opened as 6-point road favorites, which has been nearly cut in half to -3.5. Tennessee’s been the more impressive club, with QB Joey Aguilar appearing the perfect fit for the Vols’ up-tempo offense. However, Georgia is Georgia until proven otherwise, and most books add -1 to the Bulldogs when they play on the road. Update: Not surprisingly, the Dawgs are back to -4. With the Vols apparently better on both sides of the ball compared to last year, they will make life difficult for Georgia, but there is a reason why the Bulldogs are 8-1 SU and ATS in this series since 2016: mental toughness.

Bet Percentage: Previously Georgia 80%, now 62%

Doug’s Pick – Georgia covers

CFB – (143) Louisiana at (144) Missouri -27
Saturday, Sept. 13 – 4:00 p.m. ET /SECN

Missouri was presumed to take a step backwards, especially on offense, losing a three-year starter at quarterback and other key playmakers. Bettors caught the Tigers’ win over Kansas and pushed Mizzou from 24.5 to -27 home chalk over Louisiana. This is a – sandwich game situation – for Missouri, off Kansas and South Carolina on tap. Update: Roughly half the book stayed at -27.5 points with the rest at -28. If Louisiana had a better passing game, it would be an auto-play. But the Cajuns don’t, and Missouri, even if somewhat disinterested, has a diversified enough offense to pull away in the fourth quarter. We agree with the bet percentages, close.

Bet Percentage: Previously Missouri 70%, now 51%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Missouri cover

CFB – (149) South Florida at (150) Miami -17.5
Saturday, Sept. 13 – 4:30 p.m. ET /CW Network

What a start for South Florida with upsets over Boise State and at ranked Florida. There was nothing fluky about either win, outgaining both foes and winning the turnover margin +2 in either instance. From a handicapping perspective, any team off two large upsets and going on the road is – Play Against – material, which explains why the Hurricanes were adjusted from -15 to -17.5. Update: This line has remained unchanged all week, despite the money moving in favor of USF. Still, while the Bulls appear much improved, it’s hard to play at a high level week after week and doing so again on the road.

Bet Percentage: Previously Miami 67%, now USF 52%

Doug’s Pick – Miami-FL covers

*NEW* CFB – (157) Ohio U. at (158) Ohio State -29
Saturday, Sept. 13 – 7:00 p.m. ET /Peacock

There was line movement earlier in the week going against the #1 Buckeyes, and it’s continued. Ohio State opened at -34 and, as of Friday afternoon, it’s down to -29. The Ohio Bobcats have been a good MAC program for years, and last week won as a home underdog against a below-average West Virginia outfit. This game is all about the Buckeyes, as they cover if they want to because of their talent. Ohio State has not lost to an in-state opponent in 103 years, so we’ll lean with the Buckeyes at a lower number.

Bet Percentage: Ohio State 66%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Ohio State covers

CFB – (183) Duke at (184) Tulane -1.5
Saturday, Sept. 13 – 8:00 p.m. ET /ESPN2

On these pages, we have our first flipper of the year, which is when one team is turned from an underdog to a favorite. The Blue Devils opened at +2.5 and were switched to -1.5 at Tulane. The Green Wave skirted disaster last Saturday, winning 33-31 at South Alabama as -13.5-point faves. As always, turnovers matter, and Tulane is +6 this season, while the Dukies are -6. Update: This has again flipped back to the Green Wave, where it started at -1.5. We’ve seen both teams, and Duke has a better squad and athletes, coming off an embarrassing loss to Illinois. Blue Devils coach Manny Diaz is 8-3 ATS as a road dog, and his club engineers the upset.

Bet Percentage: Previously Duke 71%, now 61%

Doug’s Pick – Duke covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (5-5 record): Texas, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State and Buffalo

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (6-5 record): Florida/LSU UNDER, Duke/Tulane OVER, USC/Purdue OVER, West. Michigan/Illinois OVER and Oregon St./ Texas Tech OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.