Doug Upstone MLB Betting Preview: Playoff Races, Wild Card Odds, and Best Bets
As the baseball season winds down, let’s see what is happening in the pennant and wild card races. Let’s examine who has an edge for betting.
American League Divisions and Wild Card Races
With around 16 games left, Detroit has all but won the AL Central and is in a real battle with Toronto for the #1 seed in the junior circuit. The Tigers have a home and home series with Cleveland, are at Minnesota and Boston, plus hosting Atlanta. If Detroit takes care of business, it could be the AL top seed.
Toronto has maintained about a three-game lead over New York, with the Red Sox just behind the Yankees. The Blue Jays are not home free.
They have a hot Orioles team at home this weekend and a home-and-home with Tampa Bay. The Jays will need to win a road series at Kansas City, plus have a possible important three home battles with Boston in the final week. With Toronto 46-25 at home, even if they are 3-4 in their last seven away outings, they should be safe to win the AL East.
Though the Yanks want to win their division, they also want the home Wild Card vs. Boston if they should meet. The Red Sox have a far more difficult remaining schedule. That would mean sweeping the Yankees this weekend would be important.
Seattle is breathing down Houston’s neck and miraculously, Texas has entered the fray for the AL West and Wild Card.
The division could be settled next week, as the Astros host the Mariners and Rangers. Houston will need separation because they are on the road the last week, while the M’s are home and probably a favorite in each contest, with Texas probably favored in at least four of its last six.
Texas is trying to hunt down Seattle for the last Wild Card. Cleveland and Kansas City are lurking, but would need a 12-4 or 13-3 closing run to have a shot.
National League Divisions and Wild Card Races
Milwaukee and Philadelphia are all but in as division champs. However, with the Brewers’ recent slide and the Phillies’ surge, Philly is within a couple of games not only for the top seed in the NL but overall.
The Brew Crew will have to pick it up and have a home-and-home with St. Louis while hosting the Angels. This could give them breathing room heading into the final week.
When the Dodgers were slumping last week, San Diego was in the midst of the easiest schedule in baseball. What did the Padres do? They went 4-8. Anything less than a four-game home sweep of Colorado this weekend will all but secure San Diego for Wild Card status.
Nobody seems to want to head into the postseason Wild Card hot in the NL. The Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10. Still not hitting, and the bullpen is blowing games. The Friars and the Mets were worse at 3-7. This has permitted San Francisco and Cincinnati to crawl within two games of the final bid.
New York is in trouble opening up a nine-game homestand; the first two series are against Texas and San Diego.
The Giants are a sizzling 13-4, but six of their next nine games are with the hated Dodgers.
Cincinnati won a road series this week at San Diego and needs to take two series in Sacramento and St. Louis next to stay in contention.
MLB Betting Angles to Follow This Weekend
*NY Mets 2-10 at home playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%).
*Milwaukee 16-3 after three or more consecutive losses.
*Toronto is 16-2 in home games against left-handed starters.
*JUSTIN VERLANDER of the Giants is 1-8 in home starts playing against a team with a winning record. (Team’s record)
*QUINN PRIESTER and the Brewers have won his last 14 starts.
*Texas 14-2 OVER in away games after three or more consecutive wins.
*Arizona 6-0 OVER in away games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better.
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