College Football Week 2 Line Moves and Betting Odds | Free Picks by Doug Upstone
The good news, we have data on all the teams. It’s not complete, but it’s like the first part of a painting, we have something to work with and develop. For Week 2, we have the biggest Line Moves to this point, with one that is colossal, which will make sense when you read about it. We now have all the updates and Free Picks.
CFB – (331) Connecticut at (332) Syracuse -6.5
Saturday, Sept. 6 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ACCN
These former Big East football rivals have seen the line shrink from -8.5 to -6.5 for Syracuse. That’s significant, going below
seven for sharp bettors. The Orange have won five in a row dating back to 2012. Connecticut had its best team in years last season and lost in upstate New York 31-24 as 10-point road underdogs. Are the Huskies that much better, or are a group of football bettors spooked by the ‘Cuse permitting 45 points and 493 yards to Tennessee? Update: About half the sportsbooks went back to 7, with the remainder at 6.5. It’s tempting to take the points, but Connecticut is not Tennessee, and the Orange offense can still move the ball.
Bet Percentage: Was Connecticut 64%, Now Syracuse 51%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Syracuse
NEW: CFB – (339) Utah State at (340) Texas A&M -31.5
Saturday, Sept. 6 – 12:45 p.m. ET /SECN
Texas A&M, during the course of the week, was lifted from -29.5 to -31.5 point chalk-laden home favorite. The Aggies failed to cover last week and have a trip to Notre Dame next Saturday. One would think they would play rather vanilla again. Utah State doesn’t have anywhere near the talent of their opponent, but they do have coach Bronco Mendenhall, and he’s 7-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 20 points.
Bet Percentage: Texas A&M 75%
Doug’s Pick – Utah State covers
CFB – (355) Bowling Green at (356) Cincinnati -21.5, Total 46.5
Saturday, Sept. 6 –3:30 p.m. ET /ESPN+
Cincinnati was fairly impressive in covering the number against Nebraska, featuring a strong running game and a pass defense that kept everything in front of them. Bowling Green defeated Lafayette 26-7 as a 21.5-point favorite, leaving nothing to take away. However, college football bettors gave us something to contemplate, raising the Bearcats from -18 to -21.5 and dropping the total from 49.5 to 46. Cincy QB Brendan Sorsby will have to do better than 69 net yards passing for his club to cover. Update: Cincinnati continued to surge and is now up to -23, with the total slightly backtracking to 46.5. With this total, it sure seems like that is a big number for the Bearcats to cover with the Falcons 7-2 ATS after a home win.
Bet Percentage: Was Cincinnati 90% and UNDER 94%, Now 70% and 88% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Bowling Green covers and OVER
CFB – (369) Arkansas St. at (370) Arkansas -17.5
Saturday, Sept. 6 – 5:00 p.m. ET /SECN
This confrontation in Arkansas will be played in Little Rock, where the Razorbacks used to call home, but play at War Memorial Stadium semi-annually these days. The Hogs opened at -21.5 and that has been bumped to a pump -24 against the Red Wolves from Jonesboro. Arkansas is both bigger and faster, but what’s the motivation for them with a trip to Ole Miss on tap? Update: A modest buyback to -23.5 on the Hogs. We’ll side with Arkansas primarily because the Red Wolves had to replace every defensive starter from last season.
Bet Percentage: Was Arkansas 88%, Now 95%
Doug’s Pick – Arkansas covers
CFB – (375) North Carolina at (376) Charlotte +12.5, Total 49.5
Saturday, Sept. 6 – 7:00 p.m. ET /ESPN+
Normally, other than a Labor Day game, college football is settled on Saturday, and line adjustments begin formulating on Sunday. With North Carolina pummeled at home by TCU in Bill Belichick’s college debut, the Tar Heels are down 6.5 points to -12.5 against Charlotte, with the total up three digits to 49.5, because of how their defense played. With as many people leaving Chapel Hill in the third quarter Monday, there should be low-priced tickets for this matchup. UNC needs to win by 30 to even change a few minds. Update: The total has not changed, with the Tar Heels back up to -13.5. You would have to believe UNC was completely embarrassed and wants to take it out on somebody. Support the Heels and expect points.
Bet Percentage: Was North Carolina 67% and OVER 90%, Now 71% and 67% OVER
Doug’s Pick – North Carolina covers and OVER
CFB – (393) Ball State at (394) Auburn Total 52
Saturday, Sept. 6 – 7:30 p.m. ET /ESPNU
Auburn played physically superior at Baylor last week and took the game to the Bears in all facets. The Tigers don’t figure to have any issues with Ball State, and bettors are counting on them to hold the Cardinals to limited points, dumping the total from 55.5 to 52. This could get interesting with Ball State 5-0 OVER in road games when the total is between 49.5 and 56. Update: A review of the books finds 50% now at 51.5, and the rest held steady at 52. If Auburn shows up mentally, they score 40+, and this total goes Over. We think they will.
Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 58%, Now 72% OVER
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER
CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (3-2 record): Arkansas, BYU, Virginia, Kansas St. and San Diego St.
CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (4-2 record): Georgia South./USC UNDER, UCLA/UNLV OVER, Bowl. Green/Cincinnati UNDER, Louis. Tech/LSU OVER and San Diego St. /Washington St. OVER
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