MLB Betting Report: Brewers Stay Hot as Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets Collapse
The MLB playoff race is heating up, and the storylines couldn’t be more dramatic. The once-dominant Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets are stumbling at the worst possible time, while the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers are surging into World Series contention. Add in a historically bad Colorado Rockies team chasing unwanted records, a fantasy breakout from Ezequiel Tovar, and key betting trends for the weekend, and there’s plenty for baseball fans and bettors to dig into.
What’s Wrong with the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets?
The Los Angeles Dodgers were expected to have one of the best regular seasons in baseball history based on their preseason win total of 105.5. Instead, the Dodgers start the weekend in second place behind San Diego in the NL West.
As to why, L.A. has holes in the outfield that don’t produce, Mookie Betts is having a terrible year, and who plays third base is mostly a black hole for the offense. As bad as this is, since May, the Dodgers are #22 in run prevention. When your entire staff is allowing 4.5 runs a game, your offense has to carry the team most nights. That’s not easy to do. Dodger Blue is at home against the Padres this weekend, will they start to turn it around? L.A. is 45-43 in their last 88 contests, so a reversal doesn’t seem imminent.
The New York Yankees have slid to third place in the AL East and are tied with Cleveland for the last Wild Card with the same number of
losses. The Yankees are the Dodgers with somewhat better pitching. Manager Aaron Boone’s lineup card nightly is – Boom or Bust. Boone has tried to find a fix for the bullpen. It works for a few games, then crumbles for two out of three tries. The Yankees’ ERA since the All-Star break is #24. A flawed club, even with Aaron Judge.
The Mets are on a 2-12 downturn and are just two games ahead of Cincinnati for the last Wild Card in the senior circuit. New York’s starting pitching has turned into a disaster, #27 in runs given up since July 1. Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga don’t pitch like frontline hurlers. Converted reliever Clint Holmes looks tired, struggling to last five innings.
Both the Yankees and Mets have pitchers returning from injury that could help immediately, yet all of them have been out at least 30 days. If that is who you are depending on, you are already in trouble, it seems.
The Brewers are Rolling and Showing No Signs of Slowing
Milwaukee has long been associated with beer, and for good reason; the locals love it. (I can attest, having lived there for 23 years.) They love their sports and always embraced the underdog role, mostly because Chicago teams were down the road 90 miles away. (Quote – “damn flatlanders”)
Because the baseball team does not have the same resources as the – Big Boys – (see above). Brewers fans a complex about that topic. Since 2017, take away the Covid year, the Brewers are -The Little Engine That Could, winning 86 to 95 games a season, are always a playoff contender and frequent division champs in six of the last seven seasons.
In a season where there was no great team, one has emerged, little ol’ Milwaukee. The Brew Crew’s #3 pitching staff keeps them in every game, and their #2 offense gives them a chance to overcome any deficit.
Maybe this won’t be the same club in the postseason that has won 12 in a row, 15 of 16, and 27 of 31. If the Crew were playing in a major market, the media would expound continually about their greatness. (The first team since the 1978 Pirates to have two 11-game win streaks after July 1st.)
One last thing, if you haven’t or refuse to bet on Milwaukee until they start losing like every other team does, you don’t like money! And, they are finally getting respect from the sportsbooks, having moved from #7 to #4 to win the World Series since the start of August.
Colorado Rockies Report
OK, we know Atlanta is a significantly better team to bet against than Colorado (-40.9 units vs -32.4). However, the Rockies are still chasing history after beating St. Louis on the road to win their THIRD road series all season.
With 42 games remaining, Colorado needs nine wins to tie the White at 41-121 from last year and 10 Ws to help keep that a Chicago record. The Rockies will play 11 consecutive days, with the next two series at home, four tilts each against the D-Backs and Dodgers. A 3-5 homestand would help, and 4-4 would be amazing.
Speaking of the Rockies, their shortstop Ezequiel Tovar is cookin’. The Rockies infielder is batting .347 with an .883 OPS over a dozen starts this month. He also has six RBI and nine runs scored in August. Tovar might be a good bet for hitting props playing at Coors Field the next eight contests.
MLB Betting Angles to Follow This Weekend
*Toronto 15-2 in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times a game in the second half of the season.
*L.A. Angels are 1-12 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.
*San Francisco 1-8 at home vs. teams averaging 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game in the second half of the season.
*Washington 11-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring foes by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season.
*N.Y. Mets 11-0 OVER at home vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better.
*AARON CIVALE of the White Sox is 0-5 vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs game. (Team’s record)
*CHRIS BASSITT and Toronto are 8-0 in home night games.
*JOE BOYLE of the Rays is 6-0 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5.
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