MLB Betting Report – Hottest Teams, Player Prop Trends & Why Fading the Rockies Still Pays
Why are the St. Louis Cardinals Better Than Expected?
Coming into this season, the consensus was St. Louis would finish fourth or last in the NL Central. Oddsmakers believed they would be the worst, at only 76.5 Over/Under for wins, one behind Pittsburgh.
The starting pitching was ordinary, and the offense was 22nd in scoring in 2024. The Cardinals made almost no moves to improve the roster,
and couldn’t find a taker for third baseman Nolan Arenado, who didn’t want to leave.
Stuck in this situation, manager Oliver Marmol, along with the Redbirds front office, they started preaching to the players about using defense in combination with the other facets to win games. That initial prodding and subsequent conversations found Cardinals vets Arenado and Willson Contreras bought in and set the example at the infield corners. A look at all the top defensive metrics this season finds St. Louis in the top tier and nearly all of them.
The Cards are 27-23, +5.3 units, which is fifth in betting units won as of today. Does that hold up? Even the best defense teams are at best 50-50 to make the playoffs, needing a more complete skill set to win. But for now, it’s working on the shores of the Mississippi River.
These Detroit Tigers Have Teeth
Unless you were living in Detroit last year, it’s easy to forget the Tigers had waved the white flag and moved players because another losing campaign appeared certain last July. They were down to two starting pitchers because of injury and took Jack Flaherty from the Dodgers, not because they saw something, but rather, it meant one less bullpen game every five or six days.
However, Detroit earlier in the month was at least competitive, and starting on July 4th, they closed the season a sizzling 47-28. The Tigers knocked out Houston in the Wild Card before losing to Cleveland. The question became, did Detroit just get hot, or had they really improved?
We have the answer with the Tigers, one of the best squads in baseball at 33-18, the best wager in the sport at +13.6 units. Detroit is #5 in scoring, #6 in homers a game, and #5 in run prevention; equally proficient in starting and relief pitching.
So what happened? Two things. Many of the players the farm system produced have played enough and gotten big league experience. These were supposed to be talented players, and once they got a taste of winning, that altered their confidence level. Having a strong manager like A.J. Hinch ties it all together.
It will be fun to watch this still young squad with a couple of veterans like Javy Baez and Gleyber Torres as leaders. Barring injuries, DEE-troit is playing like they are for real.
Prop Department
Arizona is up to #5 in runs scored after leading baseball a year ago. We talked about the start Corbin Carroll was off to a few weeks ago. 3B Eugenio Suarez is a streaky home run slugger and is among the best thus far. For the Snakes, pay attention to SS Geraldo Perdomo. He’s averaging better than a hit game, is #3 in runs batted in for his club’s potent offense, and has 11 bag thefts.
Texas Rangers RHP Tyler Mahle boasts a 1.47 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 10 starts covering 55 innings, and draws the lowly Chicago White Sox, albeit on the road Friday. Consider him for Over innings and strikeouts, and Under walks and runs allowed.
Colorado Rockies Watch
We decided to have a little fun with moribund Rockies. After being swept by Philadelphia in four games, Colorado is 8-42, -26.9 units. (Gulp)
Sportsbooks are only giving a 25-30 percent discount on the RL (-1.5), as opposed to the usual 50 percent, as they attempt to discourage you from betting against Colorado.
Thus, similar to stocks, we’ll file a weekly report of betting against Colorado. In the last week, trying to earn $100 a day or $700 a week (7 games), you would have had to risk $1,945, yet still generated a profit of $420 out of a potential $700 because of one setback. Not shabby.
The Homerin’ Halos!
The Angels of Anaheim are 7-0 over the last week, thanks to an offense that has produced 16 bombs. The Halos have moved to #3 in long balls behind the Yankees and Dodgers. A bettor with tremendous courage would have picked up $1,195 on seven $100 wagers.
MLB Betting Angles to Follow This Weekend
>L.A. Dodgers 0-7 after two straight wins by two runs or less.
>Detroit is 7-0 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10.
>St. Louis is 13-3 at home against right-handed starters.
>Pittsburgh is 7-0 UNDER at home vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or fewer hits a start.
>Texas 18-4 UNDER vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game.
>Seattle’s Emerson Hancock is 9-1 OVER vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or lower.
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