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Baseball Bytes – MLB Betting Info and Tips – May 9, 2025

Doug Upstone / May 9, 2025 / MLB Betting Advice

MLB Betting Breakdown: Dodgers Pitching Woes, Weekend Angles, and Top Props (May 9, 2025)

Doug Upstone is back with another edition of Baseball Bytes! This week, he breaks down the Dodgers’ pitching struggles, shares smart betting angles for this weekend’s matchups, and highlights the hottest player prop trends you need to know.

Do the Los Angeles Dodgers Have an Organizational Pitching Problem?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in baseball as of Thursday. Based on the expectations of the World Series champions, that means a collective eye roll.

Last season, the Dodgers lost multiple starting pitchers to longer-term injuries, and manager Dave Roberts pieced together the pitching staff on the way to a championship. L.A. was #5 in bullpen usage, and nobody made a big deal about it because they won.

It was presumed that starters Dustin May and Tyler Glasnow would be on pitch counts for up to 10 starts this season. However, at this time, the Dodgers have 11 pitchers who pitched for them in the majors a year ago in some capacity, who are on the IL, with Evan Phillips the latest.

L.A. is #1 in bullpen usage at this juncture, and one has to consider how these hurlers are being used at the very least part of the problem. Maybe Roberts’ team wins 100 games again because of the offense, but at some point, the pitchers left are going to cover part of the burden, no matter how good the offense can be.

It Is Great to Be Home

We are roughly one-fifth of the way through the season. While not a definite trend, home teams have won at a .580+ clip to start 2025. Over the past five seasons, after six weeks, the previous high was .527 in 2022.

Baseball bettors willing to take the risk of betting against Pittsburgh, Colorado, and the Chicago White Sox away from home have profited nicely, which explains a good chunk of the success. At the other end of the spectrum are top clubs like the Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco, Detroit, and the New York Mets, cleaning up at home.

Keep watching for edges to exploit.

Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins Pitching Their Way Back to Respectability

The Braves started 0-7, the Twins 3-8, to start a new campaign to dig an immediate hole. Both are approaching .500, getting healthier and beginning to look like the clubs we expected.

No question, many everyday players underachieved to start, and the pitching left a lot to be desired. What helped both teams’ pitching staffs began to assert itself.

Atlanta started in the bottom 25 percent of most pitching categories. They have worked their way back to the middle of the pack, with the offense more consistent.

Minnesota has taken up residence in the Top 10 of run prevention and should have its expected preseason everyday lineup this weekend for the first time.

Here are two clubs that can win bets in the right spots.

Baseball Junkie Stuff – Torpedo Bats Old News, Get With it Man

For three days in March, torpedo bats were going to ruin the sport, giving hitters a HUGE advantage. Until they didn’t.

The latest hot trend is the kick changeup. As explained by ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, it is a modified change, featuring a changeup-like grip and generating changeup-like spin but with splitter-like movement—think vertical depth—and is thrown harder. A traditional changeup has more fade, moving horizontally to the pitcher’s arm side. When optimized, a right-hander’s kick change can resemble a left-hander’s curveball.

The key is the grip, which spikes the middle finger on top of the ball for those with bigger hands or on the side for those with average-sized hands. The movement is key in looking like a changeup, but thrown harder with opposite movement.

Next, did you know the strike zone changed this season? Neither did the batters nor the pitchers. In truth, the actual strike zone did not change, nevertheless, there was an alteration.

Umpires behind the plate are graded every game. Last year, they had a two-inch buffer zone, and if a pitch fell in that area and was called a ball or strike, the umpire’s rating was unaffected. This year, the buffer zone was reduced to ¾ of an inch, and pitchers used to getting those called strikes are finding out it has changed.

Of course, the benefit goes to the batter with a somewhat smaller strike zone. The biggest news, though MLB said all teams were notified, pitchers, catchers, and hitters claim to have never received this info.

Prop Watch: Jacob Wilson’s Bat, Randy Vásquez’s Walks, and Angels’ Strikeout Trends

The Sacramento/Las Vegas A’s had all but quit trying to win in Oakland. Now in their interim stop in Sac-Town, the Athletics are above .500 at this time, and with the young talent they are bringing up, by the time they reach Sin City, this might be a pretty good squad.

The latest is shortstop Jacob Wilson, who is batting .357, which makes him a daily candidate for O/U hit total. The 23-year-old has been dealing with six multi-hit games since the end of April. Keep an eye on him.

If you like pitching props, consider the Padres’ Randy Vasquez for walks. In only 32 1/3 innings, he’s walked 24 batters, which is 1.5 walks on average every two innings. An OVER candidate for certain.

On the topic of pitching, watch for the opposing pitchers the Los Angeles Angels face. The Angels’ batting order has veteran players who like to swing for the fences and young hitters lacking experience and plate discipline.

That is why the Halos are last in taking walks and #3 in striking out. This suggests looking at starting pitchers against the Angels for OVER Ks and UNDER on free passes.