NFL Week 10 Recap: What bettors learned

We found out the apparently Germans love NFL football and that Tom Brady isn’t quite done yet, just don’t ever, I mean EVER, send him out on another pass route. We can also start lumping the Minnesota Vikings into the upper echelon of teams in 2022 and it’s time to start believing in the Titans, again.

Vikings continue to impress

Though I’m not really a Kurt Cousins guy, it’s hard to argue with the success of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Of course, it helps cousins to have guys like Justin Jefferson (how about THAT catch), Adam Thielen, T.J. Hockenson and Dalvin Cook to throw to. Still Cousins is ranked #20 by ESPN with a QBR lower than guys like Mariota, Carr and Brissett. The Vikings are a one loss team more than halfway through the season and have won seven straight. But against the spread they are just a 4-4 teams and in that 7 game run are just 3-4 ATS. They took care of the Bills last week in one of the best game so far this season and this week they are home dogs against the Cowboys. What! The ‘Boys are 2-2 on the road, are coming off a road loss to the Packers and Prescott still has not impressed, throwing 5TD vs. 3 INTs since his return on Oct 23rd.

Tennessee keeps finding ways to win

Much of what is going on with the 6-3 Titans starts with their defense, specifically their run D. The Titans Defense is #2 vs. the run, has 13 takeaways, sacked opposing quarterbacks 29 times and has not allowed more than 20 points since week 3. They opened the season 0-2 and since have won six of 7, with the lone loss on the road in OT to the Chiefs. Tennessee is an ATS machine, going 7-2 so far this season. And, they’ve only won one game by more than a TD! Again, despite all of this they are three point dogs at Green Bay on Thursday Night Football. People love betting the Packers (4-6 ATS) and they are hammering the Packers moneyline and the spread, which has moved through the key number of 3 at many top sportsbooks. This is one TNF game to watch and potentially bet.

The sky is not falling for the Bills and Eagles

Yes, the two best teams in the NFL lost in Week 10. But the Buffalo Bills are still the 3-1 choice to win the Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles are still the top favorite to represent the NFC in SBLVII.

Keeping in mind that betting the NFL is a week-to-week proposition, bettors are rallying around Jeff Saturday, loading up on the Colts at home. The number here is down to Philadelphia by less than a TD. Everyone noticed the ball-control, rushing-first attack that Washington employed on MNF and the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor did have a great game last weekend vs. the Raiders. But even with those 147 yards, he’s not a top 10 back and has just 2 TDs in 2022.

It appears that Josh Allen can play with his elbow injury, as the Bills put up a huge fight against the aforementioned Vikings. But, two consecutive losses have Buffalo looking up at Miami in the standings. Hopefully, a home game against the Browns will get things sorted for Sean McDermott and Co. Bettors believe it, as the line has risen slightly to now Bills -8.

Bet or Fade

Th New York Giants are making believers out of me. The G-Men are 7-2 both in the standing and ATS. They are also 7-2 UNDER so far in 2022. New York hasn’t done anything spectacular or flashy and isn’t a top 5 team on offense or defense. They just keep winning, especially the games they are supposed to. The Lions roll into the Meadowlands as three point dogs. They are 1-3 on the road and the G-Men are 4-1 at home. Saquon Barkley will break 1000 yard rushing for the season and the Giants should handle the Lions. BET

I mentioned weeks ago that the Bengals were back. and they promptly went and lost to Cleveland. But, that was more of a blip against a rival, than a trend. Cincy has won 3 of their last four and have put up 30, 35, 32 and 42 points along the way. They are a top 10 offense (#8) and Joe Burrow is on pace to throw for nearly 5,000 yards and 34 TDs. Wow. In another line that has dropped this week, the Bengals are now just four point favorites at Pittsburgh. The Steelers have relied on their defense and have won their last two home games. Burrow had his worst game of the season in Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh and will certainly look to avenge that horrid 5 INT performance. Joe Mixon had 5 TDs two weeks ago. Sure TJ Watt is back for Pittsburgh, but the crooked number of four just looks good for the favorites. BET

I am looking at a double-digit favorite and usually that spells trouble. The Carolina Panthers are getting as many as 13 points at the top online sportsbooks. And rightfully so. But, despite losing a head coach and two of their best offensive weapons, Carolina got a win last week . . . vs. Atlanta. This team can’t even tank correctly! The bottom line is that Carolina has gotten smoked by all of the good teams they have faced this year. They lost by 21 to Cincy, 13 to Tampa Bay, 14 to the Rams and a whopping 22 to the 49ers. Baltimore is the #6 power ranked team and simply beats up on lesser squads. Week 11 starts the Panthers actual tank job and upcoming games against the Seahawks, Steelers and Bucs (again) can only help the Panthers’ efforts. FADE

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