NFL Week 9 Recap: What bettors learned

The weeks are flying by now and Week 9 was a a bit more “predictable”. Many favorites for the betting public won, but three double-digit favorites failed to cover the large point spreads. We also learned that the Bengals are really back, the Raiders can only find ways to lose, not win and Justin Fields can Really Run.

Cincy is back on track

After starting the season 0-2, Cincinnati has gone 5-2 and their last two wins showed glimpses of the team that represented the AFC in the Super Bowl last year. Sure, those two wins were against the Panthers and Falcons, but the tale of resurgence might well be in the betting totals. The first five games of the season, the Bengals went under the total, scoring over 20 points just once. But in the last three wins, Cincinnati has put up 30, 35 and 42, last week. In addition, the defense is starting to become a force and ranks first in touchdowns allowed per drive and top 5 in points allowed per drive. The Bengals get a bye this week and hopefully that should help with some of the injuries the teams has suffered. They head to Pittsburgh next week and beware . . . they most likely will be a double digit -point spread.

Big Favorites fail to cover

The Titans/Chiefs game was one that the sportsbooks were dreading. A ton of money came in on the Titans moneyline at several of the top online sportsbooks and the spread ballooned to -14 at some shops. The Chiefs did win, but failed to cover, even blowing up teaser bets along the way. K.C. is a 9.5 point favorite at Arrowhead vs. the Jags this week. Another big spread to keep your eye on.

The supposed best team in the NFL, the Super Bowl LVII favorite Buffalo Bills, LOST outright to the NY Jets. This was a week after the Jets couldn’t handle the Patriots. Very few saw this one coming and it again shows how betting the NFL is a week-to-week proposition. This week the Bills take on the Vikings at home. This game also proves bettors are fickle. “What-have-you-done-for-me-lately,” has never been clearer than the Week 10 line on this game. Buffalo opened as a more than  a touchdown favorite, but the game has drifted all the way down to Bills -3.5 at most top outlets due to an elbow injury to star QB Josh Allen. The Vikings are taking huge money, and there is fear about backup Case Keenum starting, but Buffalo is the same complete team that everyone was raving about after wins over the Ravens and Chiefs. The Defense is ranked #4 overall and RB Devon Singletary is averaging 4.4 yards per carry.

The Philadelphia Eagles are now the #1 team in football and the favorite to win the Super Bowl. The birds number rose to nearly two touchdowns on the road in Houston, who proved they aren’t tanking by playing the Birds tough and covering. This game was tied at the half! But bettors can’t get enough of the big favorites and this week’s opening line vs. the Commanders of -10.5 has already risen to 11 for the E A G L E S. Gamblers should keep in mind that the 8-0 Eagles are just 5-3 ATS.

Justin Fields sets record

Almost as soon as the Bears loss to the Dolphins ended sports channels and social media were ablaze with the performance of Justin Fields. Gotta admit, his 61 yard burst into the end zone was pretty impressive. But more impressive is that someone in Chicago has figured out how to use him and make the Bears’ offense go. After a loss in Week 6 to the Washington Commanders 12-7, the Bears offense has rolled, scoring 33 points in a win vs. the Patriots and 29 and 32 in losses to Dallas and Miami. Fields amassed 320 yards rushing and scored once in each game. Plus, he completed more than 60% of his passes and thrown six TDs vs just one interception. If the Bears offense continues to evolve behind Fields, they may be an ATS team to watch in the upcoming weeks. They are favored by 3 at home vs. Detroit and as of this writing some books, like Pointsbet, have Bears -2.5.

Week 10 Bet or Fade?

The San Francisco 49ers picked up Christian McCaffrey and have not looked back. Now fully integrated in the offense, McCaffrey became just the fourth player since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to throw, catch and run for a touchdown. If the Niners can do with McCaffrey what the Bears are doing for Fields, look out. BET

The Raiders seem to find more ways to lose than any team in recent memory. Las Vegas lost its third game of the season after holding at least a 17-point lead last week and HC Josh McDaniels has to be feeling the heat. The Raiders are just 2-6 and appear to be in a free fall. I’d rather bet on McDaniels to be fried than the Raiders to cover 5.5 points vs. the Colts in Week 10. FADE

Two of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season are the Seattle Seahawks and QB Geno Smith. The Seahawks sit stop the NFC West at 6-3 and are also 6-3 ATS. They have reeled off four straight wins and Smith is Top 5 in many of the QB stats. They are getting three points at Tampa Bay Sunday afternoon. The Bucs are the worst ATS team in the league and this feels like another case of no respect by the oddsmakers, this time for the Seahawks. BET

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