NFL Week 7 Betting: Dog Report

NFL underdog picks for Week 7 from FairwayJay

Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season may feel like a let down without a marquee match-up like last week’s Bills-Chiefs heavyweight ’bout and Buffalo’s 24-20 win. There was another outright ‘Dog winner on the Seahawks, but an unbelievable and unfortunate loss by the Jaguars. If you saw the end game, it was a rough moment as the  favorite bettors cashed in as the Colts passed for a TD with 17 seconds remaining to win 34-26. With Indy trailing 27-26, a field goal would have won the game, which of course is why Jacksonville was a monster live betting favorite to cover the +2.5 point spread inside the final minute.

NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks 

Detroit (+7) at Dallas
Wait to bet this as the line may rise to +7.5 or more and certainly not lower than +7 with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott announcing Thursday his return from a broken thumb. He’ll likely start, but coach crumble MM (Mickey Mouse) Mike McCarthy has not yet announced he will start. Regardless, he’ll be a bit rusty and not in top form, IMO.

The Lions are off a bye and a road underdog, which is a positive profile. Unfortunately the Lions defense doesn’t have a positive profile and clueless coach Campbell’s kitties rank last in Football Outsiders DVOA Defense rankings. Still, these two teams rate closer than perceived by more advanced measures including expected points added per play. Detroit ranks top 10 in Football Outsiders DVOA Offense including No. 5 rushing. Dallas is No. 17 in offensive DVOA and the passing game has been below average with game manager Cooper Rush replacing Dak. The Cowboys are also off the big game and 26-17 loss to division leader and rival Philadelphia in a game they had 3 turnovers and forced zero despite sporting a stronger defense.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Tennessee
Rematch from the Week 4 division duel when the Colts lost to the Titans 24-17 despite outgaining Tennessee by more than 120 yards. That’s what happens when a team (Colts) is minus (-3) or greater in the turnover column in a game, as those -3 or greater turnover margin teams are now 0-17 SU/ATS this season after the Saints Thursday night debacle and pair of Pick-6’s and negative (-3) turnover margin in their 42-34 loss at Arizona.

The Colts rushed for just 38 net yards that Week 4 game vs the Titans and QB Matt Ryan got untracked for 356 passing yards and then 389 last week vs. the Jaguars. Ryan is still rated low by PFF and the Colts efficiency is lacking along with their ground game, which goes for just 83 yards per game. Running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) missed the last two games but likely returns to the lineup for this big division game. The Titans are running for just 103 yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush and not nearly as often or effective as recent seasons. The Titans have been out-gained by every opponent this season, and we see that continuing Sunday in the AFC South first place showdown.

Kansas City at San Francisco (+2)

Monitor the line at the online sportsbooks with RB Christian McCaffrey’s status following the trade to San Francisco, but bet the 49ers on the moneyline as well. The Niners should get more defensive reinforcements back this week and as such San Fran’s defense is most capable of pressuring and frustrating Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. The 49ers top of the league run defense allows just 3.3 yards per rush and 87 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are off the big game and loss to the Bills and Buffalo’s great defense, and the Niners match them, allowing less than 15 points per game as well. Stronger running game and defense as ‘Dog is the way to go.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL point spread predictions. Follow FairwayJay here at GamblersWORLD.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more gambling insights.

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