JH-SPORTSLINE (www.jhsportsline.com)
By Jeff/JH-Sportsline
Sep 8, 2010, 11:57
Hi Sports Fans!
So excited here at JH-Sportsline. College Football is off to a 2-1 start, and we look to have our 5th straight winning NFL season starting with Thursday's Opening game on ESPN. All selections are documented by The Sports Monitor of OK.
Big News Today! We have our one and only Top-rated 10* MLB Underdog Game of the Year. We also have a sale going on the best Yearly personal service package in the industry. Check it out!
Top-rated 10* MLB Underdog Game of Year + Bonus
It's time for another Top-rated gem from the big game master himself. Jeff's Top-rated 10 unit gems are 56-28 L84, 73-37 L110, and 127-59 last 186 all sports combined. Get the big 10 unit MLB Underdog GOY and one bonus 5* best bet for just $29 bucks. Lets build that bankroll for this week's College & NFL action. 100% Profit Guaranteed at www.jhsportsline.com!
One Full Year All Sports Personal Package (Sale)
Jeff has all the credentials that you look for in a winning service. He started writing sports related articles after graduating High School, while also starting college in 1991. The Internet was just about to explode and that's were Jeff took advantage. Jeff submitted his work and was quickly picked up by numerous websites to write game previews, handicapping articles, betting advice, and more. He also has been asked to build sports "sections" of established and start-up websites. Jeff was hired by Picks Pal Inc as their Manager of Odds in Mountain View, CA and held the position for over two years. This Yearly Package comes with personal service. If you have any questions about any game on the board just pick up the phone and give me a call. If you're shy just send me a message. I will tell you my thoughts about the match-up you have in question.
Why trust Jeff Hochman? For the reasons mentioned above and very few services have posted Top 25 rankings in the four major sports over a long period of time. Jeff has a documented #1 ranking in the NBA (2005-06) and a documented #1 ranking in Hockey. Jeff is a 4-time NHL Handicapping champion. No fluke there. Three regular season Titles (2002, 2006, 2009) and one Post-season Title. Jeff has over 20 Top 25 rankings in his career fully documented. Quality over Quantity is my motto.
Jeff has been working in this business for over 19 years and maintains his honest approach. Win or lose you always get the truth. Jump on board with your West Coast Wise Guy. You'll be Glad you did! This Yearly package is Guaranteed to show you a profit at www.jhsportsline.com! Normal Price is $2,100. Jeff's Sale Price ($1499) is ridiculously low so take advantage now! Sale ends this Sunday at Midnight. Top-rated 10 unit gems are 56-28 L84, 73-37 L110, and 127-59 last 186 all sports combined.
Not just for underdogs! There are many games in the NFL when taking a favorite is the more Valued play.
You will hear many people say I only take favorites in the NFL and you will also hear many people say I only take Underdogs. In the NFL everyone has their preference but if you only stick to one or the other you CAN'T and WON'T show a profit by seasons end.
You have to think one step ahead of the odds-makers and treat sports handicapping as a business rather than a hobby.
5-Year plan
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week #1 are just 34-46-7 ATS (42.5%). This of course implies that roadies on the blind are a 57.5% winning proposition during this time.
Jo public has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week #1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
The odds-makers also know that Jo Public loves to bet overs and will inflate the line on purpose in Week one.
NFL Week One games with an Over/Under of 44 or more points are 18-37 O/U since 1999. Maybe the hot weather has something to do with all the low week one scores. Interesting stuff, a 67% simple angle on Under the Total in week on all totals of 44 or more!
Who Let the Dogs Out?
Favorites are just 34-46-9 ATS in Week #1 the past five NFL seasons. This means that underdogs bark at a 57.5% clip. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and -6 1/2 are only 9-17 ATS (31%) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –7 1/2 have stumbled to a 10-21 ATS (32.5%) in Week one games the past five seasons.
Playoff Teams from Last Season
It might surprise you (it did to me) to learn that playoff teams from the prior year vs. non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 17-26-5 (40%) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 9-16-2 ATS (33%) during this time.
The odds-makers will intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
Don't get trapped in week One. Good Luck this football season.
