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Hi Sports Fans,
Here is your kick-off Newsletter selection for 2008-09. (Check below) These free newsletter picks are a solid 58% liftetime. Last year they went 14-6 on all football Side/OU picks.
Big winning day on Saturday going 2-0 in College Football. Another 10* winner with Iowa State -7 (closed at 9) in a blowout. A rare chalk selection from JH-Sportsline! Akron underdog outright was our 5* Best Bet winner.
We have two NFL selections led by our top-rated 10* Game of the Week. It's an underdog. We also have our top-rated 10* MLB Game of the Week and our 4* Horse Pick of the Week. Don't miss the big ticket if you're serious about winning!
Click the one day package at www.jhsportsline.com or call the office at 877-582-5054. Early Bird NHL Hockey package will go on sale next week! Check out my past rankings at The Sports Monitor of OK.
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Here is some news you can use for the upcoming NFL season. It's not too late for my Trifecta Football package at www.jhsportsline.com. I am a proven winner at The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma and will show you a nice profit. Guaranteed!
Value is the Key
Not just for underdogs! There are many games in the NFL when taking the favorite is the more Value play.
You will hear many people say I only take favorites in the NFL and you will also hear many people say I only take Underdogs. In the NFL everyone has their preference but if you only stick to one or the other you CAN'T and WON'T show a profit by seasons end.
You have to think one step ahead of the oddsmakers. Being a former oddsmaker myself has many advantages. If you need some help this football season than I am your man.
5-Year plan
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week #1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42%). This of course implies that roadies on the blind are a 58% winning proposition during this time.
Jo public has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week #1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Who let the Dogs out?
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS in Week #1 the past five NFL seasons. This means that underdogs bark at a 58% clip. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and -6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35%) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40%) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32%) in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Playoff teams from prior year
It might surprise you (it did to me) to learn that playoff teams from the prior year vs. non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41%) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33%) during this time.
The oddsmakers will intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
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Sunday's Newsletter selection: Bears vs. Colts Under 44.5
The public perception will be to take the "Over" in this football game but I look for both defenses to play faster than the offenses for many reasons. Peyton Manning can't be as sharp as he will be in about a month and Kyle Orton won't strike fear on any DB wearing a Colts uniform. The Bears also know they have to run the ball alot with Matt Forte and Kevin Jones. The Colts are also going to run heavy in this contest due to Manning's semi-rust. Go under 44.5 points and book yourself a winner tonight on Natinoal TV. I expect the total to land in the low 40s. Good Luck!
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JEFF H
www.jhsportsline.com
Toll-Free Office=877-582-5054
E-mail: jhsportsline@yahoo.com
Please comply with all copyright laws. Protected by title 17~JHSL info for entertainment purposes only
JHSL
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JEFF H
www.jhsportsline.com
Toll-Free Office=877-582-5054
E-mail: jhsportsline@yahoo.com
Please comply with all copyright laws. Protected by title 17~JHSL info for entertainment purposes only
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