While most bettors are familiar with NFL future pools, which
involve picking a team to win their division, conference or even the Super
Bowl, not everyone knows that they can also bet the 'over' or 'under' on the
number of games a particular team will win over the course of its season.
This betting option is becoming increasingly popular with
players in Nevada and on the Internet. According to Richard B. Dressler, race
and sports book manager for the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas, there are three
types of individuals who bet on NFL season totals.
The first and largest contingent is the recreational bettor
that is on vacation and wants to have action on their favorite team for the
entire course of the season. The second type is the savvy bettor who has an
educated opinion on the potential outcome of a team's season. The third type -
which Dressler said he turns away at the IP - is the "scalper" or
"middler" who is trying to take advantage of different numbers at
competing books in an attempt to cash in at the expense of the casinos without
taking any financial risk.
While most professionals stay away from NFL season totals,
there are some inherent advantages for potential profits. As with any form of
betting that involves a large group of recreational bettors, going against the
public can be a good idea in certain situations and that certainly applies to
this form of wagering.
"I'll tell you why (recreational) bettors love
them," said Dressler, the first bookie on The Strip to post numbers for
NFL season totals. "Lets say a guy comes in here from Pennsylvania. He
knows he is only here (one) week. He knows he is going to watch (the Pittsburgh
Steelers) every week so he takes the 'over.' That one ticket is like having a
bet on 16 individual games."
Since there is no one to compare its lines to, releasing the
first numbers for season totals exposes the IP to some risk, but Dressler is
confident in the strength of his oddsmaking team. In order to come up with the
numbers, he and three other members of his staff split up and individually make
a number for each team. Then, during a roundtable discussion, the group hammers
out a consensus number. He says that his team usually comes up with similar
numbers that rarely differ more than ½ a game. In extremely unusual
cases, however, members of the group may differ as many as two full games.
Several factors go into the formulation of the numbers at the
IP, the most important being the team's personnel. Betting patterns of sports
book patrons is also an important factor. Dressler said his staff also looks at
the schedule, although that is not important as some people may think.
"With so much parity, the schedule doesn't weigh as much
as it used to," he said. "And it's not like the team that wins the
division now gets to play the tough schedule - they have changed that up a
little bit too."
Most seasons there is one team that is projected to be way
ahead of the competition at 11 or 12 wins. This year, however, the top two
teams - New England and Indianapolis - are listed at only 10 ½ wins.
Most of the league is bunched up between 10 and seven wins and perennial
cellar-dwellers like Arizona and San Diego are at the bottom of the list at 5
½ and 4 ½ wins, respectively.
Of course, there are going to be teams that win more than 10
games during the upcoming season just as there will likely be teams that will
win less than five games. That proves that there are some opportunities for the
savvy handicapper to make some nice profits playing these season totals. Most
professionals, however, stay away from them because they can win money each
week of the NFL season without having to wait until the end of the regular
season in order to cash their tickets. The 30-cent line that is regularly used
for these betting options also ensures a healthy profit for the books and a
small margin of error for even the sharpest of bettors.
For the most part, the actual number of wins posted at a book
will not change from the time the numbers are put up until they are taken off
the board at the start of the regular season. Bookmakers balance the action by
adjusting the money line according to the action that is coming in. If an
influx of bettors is heavy on the Patriots 'over,' for example, they will lower
the price on the 'under' in order to make that side more attractive.
"There is not a single team (on our board) that has not
had a (money line) movement," said Dressler. "We do not move off the
number. If I put up a nine on a team, I put them at a flat minus 115. If I take
'over' or 'under' money, I will go to minus 125 or 130 (on that side). (Former
IP oddsmaker) Ed Salmons said he could only remember once in the past four or
five years that we took so much money on the 'under' that we had to move (a
team) from six to 6 ½."
Another situation that could cause a number to move is a
preseason injury to a key player. Dressler said, however, that it would take an
injury to a starting quarterback or a superstar running back in order to move
the line. If there is a major injury, Dressler will take the number down right
away and post a new number. Any bettor who placed a wager with the original
number, however, gets to keep that wager.
"It would have to be someone really major," he
added. "(In certain cases) a star wide receiver goes out and people (who
bet the over) start to panic. It's only someone the caliber of a starting
quarterback that would make the number come down and be changed. Even if a
team's head running back goes down; unless it is a guy like (Eric) Dickerson
when he was running for the Rams at his peak; most don't have a superstar at
that position. Most teams have a (quality) backup (RB) that will step in."
Even if a starting QB does go down, that does not always
guarantee that it is an automatic win for 'under' bettors. The perfect example
of this was in 1999 when St. Louis starter Trent Green was injured in the
preseason on a hit by Chargers safety Rodney Harrison. Green was out for the
season with a damaged knee and the starting job was handed over to Kurt Warner,
an unknown from the Arena Football League. At this point the 'under' bettors
were already counting their winnings while the 'over' bettors were chalking it
up as a loss. Of course, Warner stepped in and led the Rams to a 13-3 regular
season record and an eventual Super Bowl victory.
Betting on NFL season totals has been swift at the IP,
according to Dressler. But he expects the bulk of his business to come in the
last two weeks of August. This wagering option can be a fun way to have action
throughout the course of the NFL season and it can be a profitable opportunity
for those who do their homework and pick their spots carefully.
NFL 2004 Regular Season Wins from the Imperial Palace in
Las Vegas
|
Team
|
Total Wins
|
Over
|
Under
|
|
New England Patriots
|
10 1/2
|
-115
|
-115
|
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
10 1/2
|
+105
|
-135
|
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
10 1/2
|
-105
|
-125
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
10
|
EV
|
-130
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
10
|
+125
|
-155
|
|
St. Louis Rams
|
9 1/2
|
EV
|
-130
|
|
Green Bay Packers
|
9 1/2
|
+115
|
-145
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
9
|
-125
|
-105
|
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
9
|
EV
|
-130
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
9
|
-150
|
+120
|
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
9
|
-135
|
+105
|
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
9
|
+105
|
-135
|
|
Washington Redskins
|
9
|
EV
|
-130
|
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
9
|
-110
|
-120
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
9
|
-130
|
EV
|
|
New York Jets
|
9
|
+125
|
-155
|
|
Carolina Panthers
|
8 1/2
|
-120
|
-110
|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
8 1/2
|
-145
|
+115
|
|
Oakland Raiders
|
7 1/2
|
EV
|
-130
|
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
7 1/2
|
-130
|
EV
|
|
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
7 1/2
|
EV
|
-130
|
|
New Orleans Saints
|
7 1/2
|
-115
|
-115
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
7 1/2
|
-120
|
-110
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
7 1/2
|
-110
|
-120
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
7 1/2
|
+115
|
-145
|
|
Chicago Bears
|
7
|
+125
|
-155
|
|
New York Giants
|
6 1/2
|
+110
|
-140
|
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
off
|
off
|
off
|
|
Houston Texas
|
6 1/2
|
-120
|
-110
|
|
Detroit Lions
|
6 1/2
|
-145
|
+115
|
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
5 1/2
|
-135
|
+105
|
|
San Diego Chargers
|
4 1/2
|
-110
|
-120
|
Jeremy Martin is one of the foremost experts in the sports
betting industry. For more information, Free Picks or to contact Jeremy visit www.docsports.com
|
|
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
|
� Copyright 2003 Gamblersworld.com,
Inc.
Top of Page |
|
|